Census shows slight population growth
By TIM GULLA Ledger Staff Writer tim@gaffneyledger.com

Sandwiched between the fastest and the eighth-fastest growing counties in South Carolina, Cherokee County ended 2007 with positive population growth but a middle-of-the-pack ranking, according to the newest population estimates released by the U.S. Census Bureau.

According to the estimates for the period of July 2006 to July 2007, Cherokee County's population grew to 54,015 as of last July, an increase of about 185 residents from July 2006.

Such a rise represented a .3 percent change in year-over-year population growth and ranked Cherokee County 24th out of the state's 46 counties.

Experts caution about making too many conclusions about the data, as they say long-term trends are far more valuable than a single year's worth of information.

"Hopefully, people wouldn't just look at one point," said Michael Macfarlane of the South Carolina State Data Center, Office of Research and Statistics. "It doesn't tell you much of anything."

Looking more long term, however, does show Cherokee County appears to be off the population growth pace it set from 1990 to 2000, when the county's population jumped 18 percent, or from 1980 to 1990, when the population increased by almost 9 percent.

For the first seven years of this decade, Cherokee County's population is up just 2.8 percent.

In contrast, Cherokee County's neighbor to the east, York County, is seeing its population grow at a somewhat blistering pace.

The official 2000 Census pegged York County's population at 164,614, while new estimates for July 2007 show York County's population has grown to 208,827. That equates to a 26 percent jump in population in the past seven years and a 5.2 percent jump from July 2006 to July 2007. This rise made York County the fastest-growing county in South Carolina for the latest time period, replacing the previous growth rate leader Greenville County.

Spartanburg County's population grew to 275,534, an increase of 5,632, from July 2006 to July 2007 and by an estimated 21,743 from 2000 to 2007. Such changes equate to a 2.1 percent change in population from July 2006 to July 2007 and an 8.6 percent change in the past seven years.

Macfarlane's office compiled most of the data for the latest estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Using the 2000 Census as a baseline, officials make estimates in population changes by compiling birth, death, as well as nursing home and dormitory records kept by the state, and federal statistics such as those from Medicaid and the IRS.

Ten counties in South Carolina, almost all of them smaller, rural counties, actually lost population from July 2006 to July 2007, based on the newest estimates. They include Allendale, Bamberg, Calhoun, Chester, and Union.

Population figures fluctuate over time and many factors come into play, Macfarlane explained.

"The big push - pull factor (for younger people) is employment," he said. "(Employment) will keep them there or drive them somewhere else."

Migration, the influx of immigrants, and birth and death rates all play a role as well. As an example of how migration impacts the figures, Cherokee County had more residents of the "Baby Boom" generation in 2000 than it did in 1970, which would have been the peak of the "Baby Boom" population.

While the newest population figures represent wellinformed and well-educated guesses, Macfarlane said there's always a lag time in the inclusion of factors that can sway population figures. For instance, it takes time for a new housing development, a new plant opening, or a plant closure, to be reflected in the estimates.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, two parishes in Louisiana hard-hit by Hurricane Katrina - St. Bernard and Orleans - rebounded to become the fastest-growing counties in the nation for 2007.

St. Bernard Parish, however, also happened to be the fastest-losing county in the nation from 2005 to 2006.