Both the state and Cherokee County unemployment rates dropped in July, which normally would be a cause for celebration that things are looking better after months of dismal jobs reports kept the unemployment rate on a upward trajectory.

But the latest numbers tell state labor analysts there's no definitive proof yet that the job market has rebounded from a prolonged national recession that has claimed thousands of jobs statewide and continues to do so in key sectors.

There's an increasing glimmer of hope, though, both in national reports and on a local level, that the situation is improving.

Karen Lawson, area director for the Gaffney Employment Security Commission office, said she's seeing several local employers adding to their payrolls again after months of inactivity. Moreover, the temporary shutdowns that idled plants for brief periods as companies looked to conserve cash are tapering off.

The latest unemployment report released Friday showed Cherokee County's unemployment rate for July stood at 17.2 percent, a decline of two-tenths of a percentage point from the revised June rate of 17.4 percent.

"We're taking applications for companies that had not been hiring in the past couple months," Lawson said. "We feel that's kind of helped drop the rate in Cherokee County."

South Carolina's unemployment rate declined from 12.1 percent in June to 11.8 percent in July, a drop of threetenths of a percentage point. The decline was the first monthly decrease in more than a year.

Of South Carolina's 46 counties, the unemployment rate dropped in 42, stayed the same in one, and only increased in three.

"The good news is the recessionary trend seems to have slowed somewhat over the past two or three months," said Sam McClary, labor market analyst with the South Carolina Employment Security Commission.

While an unemployment drop is normally a positive sign, McClary cautioned that rates are being influenced by a decline in the labor force, a sign that some unemployed people are getting discouraged in their job search and giving up. "The drop in the rate doesn't mean that much in terms of improvement," McClary said.

McClary said the next few months of job data will allow more definitive projections. For the time being, McClary can't say the recession has hit bottom in South Carolina. Construction and manufacturing jobs, for instance, continue to decline in the state.

According to state unemployment figures, Cherokee County's labor force was estimated at 25,926 in July, a decline of more than 600 from the 26,584 worker estimate in June.

The number of unemployed Cherokee County workers was estimated at 4,402 in July, down a little more than 400 from the estimate of 4,818 in June.

"I am betting that when the experts set this recession's closing date they will choose either August or September of 2009," wrote Dr. Bruce Yandle, dean emeritus of the College of Business and Behavioral Science at Clemson University and director of the Strom Thurmond Institute Economic Outlook Project, in his widely-read quarterly economic report. "This will make this recession the longest, but not the most painful, since 1948. But remember, the end of a recession means things will not get any worse. Getting better depends on recovery, and the road ahead looks pretty bumpy."

Yandle said the jobless rate won't really decline until after an economic recovery takes hold.

"Look for this in the first half of 2010," he predicted.

Cherokee County is one of 42 counties to see a decline in its unemployment rate in July while South Carolina's overall unemployment rate declined for the first time in more than a year. Has the bottom of the economic recession finally been found? Here are the month-by-month Cherokee County numbers dating back to February 2008:
July 2009 — 17.2%
June 2009 — 17.4% (revised)
May 2009 — 17.3%
April 2009 — 16.8% (revised)
March 2009 — 17.0%
February 2009 — 16.9%
January 2009 — 15.5%
December 2008 — 13%
November 2008 — 11.7%
October 2008 — 11.3%
September 2008 — 9.8%
August 2008 — 9.6%
July 2008 — 9.1%
June 2008 — 8.4%
May 2008 — 8.1%
April 2008 — 9.5%
March 2008 — 7.3%
February 2008 — 8.0%
SOURCE: South Carolina
Employment Security Commission