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Train wreck coming?

2009-09-02 / Columns

LEDGER COLUMNIST
CODY SOSSAMON PUBLISHER

Do you have any debts? Owe money on a car or two? How about a mortgage on your house? Credit card payment? College loan?

I'd guess that almost everyone has owed money to someone or some institution at one time or another in their lives and most of us probably are currently making payments of some kind.

If you're like me, you probably have a pretty good idea of when that debt will be paid in full and how much it's costing you each month. Most rationale people don't bite off more than they can chew, either. That is, we don't borrow more than we can afford to pay back.

Those who do usually end up declaring bankruptcy and while they get out from under their current debt, it's a long painful process to recover from.

But what about the U.S. government? If you read, watch or listen to any national news, you've heard a lot about the national debt over the years and especially in the past few weeks. The 2010 budget proposed by President Barack Obama projects significant debt increases. The debt is projected to nearly double to $20 trillion by 2015.

The current administration did not create deficit spending and national debt. The U.S. has had debt since its inception. Our elected officials seem not to be concerned at all about deficit spending and the growing national debt. Oh, they give us lip service about needing to do something about it, but they vote for budgets with greater expense than revenue.

In trying to understand more about national debt, I did a little research and found this on Wikipedia, which I'll grant you might not be the most reliable source, but it made more sense than anything else.

"A traditional defense of the national debt is that Americans 'owe the debt to themselves,' but that is becoming increasingly less accurate. The U.S. debt in the hands of foreign governments was 25 percent of the total in 2007, virtually double the 1988 figure of 13 percent. Despite the declining willingness of foreign investors to continue investing in U.S. dollar denominated instruments as the U.S. dollar fell in 2007, the U.S. Treasury statistics indicate that, at the end of 2006, foreigners held 44 percent of federal debt held by the public."

Ok, so what? Read on.

"This exposure to potential financial or political risk should foreign banks stop buying Treasury securities or start selling them heavily was addressed in a recent report issued by the Bank of International Settlements which stated, 'Foreign investors in U.S. dollar assets have seen big losses measured in dollars, and still bigger ones measured in their own currency. While unlikely, indeed highly improbable for public sector investors, a sudden rush for the exits cannot be ruled out completely.'"

I do not pretend to understand the ramifications of national debt and deficit spending. I can only equate it to a more personal level. I DO KNOW that I cannot spend more than I make and borrow my way out of the hole I put myself in. It seems only logical that the United States government is no different in the long term. At some point those who have loaned money to the U.S. will want it back.

Foreign pressure notwithstanding, we're also looking at some severe domestic problems.

Once again, I reference Wikipedia.

"Several government agencies have reported that the federal government is facing a series of critical long-term financing challenges. This is because expenditures related to entitlement programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are growing considerably faster than the economy overall... . These agencies have indicated that under current law, sometime between 2030 and 2040, mandatory spending (primarily Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and interest on the national debt) will exceed tax revenue. In other words, all discretionary spending (e.g., defense, homeland security, law enforcement, education, etc.) will require borrowing and related deficit spending. These agencies have used such language as "unsustainable" and "trainwreck" to describe such a future.

Laurence Kotlikoff, author and professor of economics at Boston University, has argued the United States must eventually choose between "bankruptcy," raising taxes, or cutting payouts. Others scoff at these notions.

Waiting around to see if Kotlikoff and like-minded thinkers are correct is not an option. Contact Sens. Jim DeMint, Lindsay Graham and Rep. John Spratt and demand they put a stop to this financial insanity.
U.S. Sen. Jim DeMint
825 Hart Senate
Office Building
(Washington) 202-224-6121
(Greenville) 864-233-5366
U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham
290 Russell Senate
Office Building
202 224-5972
(864) 250-1417
U.S. Congressman John Spratt
1536 Longworth Building
Washington, DC 20515; or
201 E. Main St.,
Suite 305
Rock Hill, SC 29730
202-225-5501
803-327-1114
Cody Sossamon (cody@gaffneyledger.com) is publisher of The Gaffney Ledger.

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