Just a month ahead of the Christmas season, the latest job loss report shows South Carolina and counties such as Cherokee are still struggling to put people back to work.

And some experts don’t think the situation will change anytime soon.

South Carolina’s overall unemployment rate rose four-tenths of a percentage point to 12.1 percent for October while Cherokee County’s unemployment rate, which has been holding somewhat steady, rose slightly from 16.7 percent in September to 16.8 percent in October.

The increase in the state’s unemployment rate mirrored what’s going on at the national level as the U.S. unemployment rate increased by four-tenths of a percentage point last month to 10.2 percent.

As expected, leisure and hospitality jobs in South Carolina that benefit from the summer vacation season fell dramatically in October while manufacturing and construction jobs continued their prolonged slide. The leisure and hospitality sector shed 5,600 jobs in October while manufacturing shed 1,600 and construction shed 1,300 jobs, according to the latest estimates from the South Carolina Employment Security Commission.

Jobs in the professional and business services and government and retail sectors did show improvement, though, adding a combined 10,400 jobs in October.

“Going forward, our state faces significant challenges as it tries to replace the large number of jobs lost due to the recession that began in December of 2007,” said Sam Foster, Interim Executive Director of the Employment Security Commission.

Dr. Bruce Yandle, Distinguished Professor of Economics Emeritus at Clemson University, said he doesn’t expect South Carolina to enter a recovery phase until well into 2010. But he said he saw some “mildly positive” notes in the latest report.

For instance, he said the latest report shows the labor force is growing.

“This means that discouraged workers are again seeking work and that additional work-age people are entering the work force,” Yandle said. “Positive growth is better than negative growth. It is a sign of optimism.”

Also, Yandle noted that total employment was up in October, though it remained lower than a year ago when seasonally adjusted.

Yandle also saw some positive signs in the sectors that showed job growth. “(Professional and business services) is the fastest growing sector in the state and will lead the state as we enter recovery,” he said. But, he said, “This is tied to an increase in manufacturing output —

not employment.”

Dr. Don Schunk, research economist at Coastal Carolina University’s BB&T Center for Economic and Community Development, expects South Carolina will see more increases in the unemployment rate going forward as more people look for work.

“The recession may be over, but this does not mean we are on a path of sustained recovery,” Schunk said in his widely-read monthly analysis of the state’s unemployment figures. “As the private sector grapples with deciding what a ‘new normal’ for the economy may look like, we will likely see continued restraint in terms of consumer spending, private sector investment, and business expansion and hiring.”

Schunk believes cau- tious consumer spending will keep a lid on hiring in the retail sector and that an excess inventory of residential and commercial real estate, along with more foreclosures and bankruptcies to come, will keep a lid on construction activity.

He also believes state and local government budget constraints will dampen government employment.

“The recession may be over but the important indicators for most people are job growth and wage growth and we are not yet on the verge of a recovery for these critical indicators.”

According to the latest estimates, Cherokee County’s labor force stood at 25,640 in October, virtually unchanged from September and down about 110 from October 2008.

The number of unemployed Cherokee County residents, meanwhile, stood at 4,297, up slightly from 4,284 in September.

In October 2008, the number of unemployed in Cherokee County was estimated at 2,933, when the unemployment rate stood at 11.4 percent.

Overall, 39 South Carolina counties saw job losses in October while five counties have unemployment rates above 20 percent.

Looking forward, Steve McLaughlin, a labor analyst with the Employment Security Commission, said the forecast remains a little cloudy.

“Right now we’re not seeing any signs where demand (for jobs) is going to come from in the near term,” he said. “Our crystal ball, so to speak, isn’t showing ... what industry is going to lead the county or state out of recession.”