All signs point to a busy, problematic Atlantic hurricane season this year.

But we’ve been duly warned — again — and it’s up to us to be ready for it.

A trifecta of potential trouble is out there. First, the National Weather Center forecasts an above average number of storms, with 14 to 23 named storms, eight to 14 hurricanes and three to seven major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5, with winds of at least 111 mph).

Second, the state’s population along the coast has more than doubled since 1960, with 250,000 more people living on the coast than there were when Hurricane Hugo hit in 1989.

More people means more time and trouble to get everyone out of the way of a storm. It would take about 27 hours to evacuate Beaufort County in peak tourism season, officials say.

Third, and potentially the most dangerous, is continuing complacency about storm risks.

The National Hurricane Survival Initiative poll of coastal residents in nine states found that 45 percent don’t feel vulnerable to a hurricane or related tornado or flooding; 47 percent have no hurricane survival kit; and 13 percent would not evacuate even if ordered.

Seventy-four percent of those surveyed have taken no steps to make their homes stronger, and 36 percent have no family disaster plan. ...

Improved forecasting of a storm’s track means the National Hurricane Center will warn residents and visitors 12 hours earlier than in previous years. Tropical storm and hurricane watches will be issued when conditions are possible along the coast within 48 hours. Tropical storm and hurricane warnings will be issued if such conditions are expected to hit the coast within 36 hours.

That extra 12 hours could prove helpful. Forty-five percent of the coastal residents surveyed said they would start preparing their home for a hurricane when a hurricane watch or warning was issued. Only 39 percent said they had prepared ahead of time so that readying their homes would take just a few hours. ...

Emergency management officials grapple every year, every storm with when and where to issue warnings. Predicting storms is an improving science, but still an imperfect one. “Overwarning,” too, is risky. That can fuel complacency, too.

The best advice is simple: When officials say go, then go. In the meantime, do what you can to get ready.

The Beaufort Gazette