President Barack Obama recently hailed a small drop in the national unemployment rate from 9.9 to 9.7 percent as evidence that the economy is “getting stronger.” But the small gain in this politically critical statistic was largely a fluke.

Nationwide, according to the U.S. Department of Labor, 322,000 people stopped looking for jobs and 411,000 people were hired by the Census Bureau for temporary positions lasting as little as one day.

When adjusted for these changes, unemployment grew in May, following the upward trend of April. Underlining the continued weakness of the economy, the Labor Department reported that the number of people out of work six months or longer set a record of 6.76 million in May, also a record 46 percent of all unemployed.

The Census Bureau’s nationwide temporary hiring for its 2010 count will also affect South Carolina’s May unemployment rate when that figure is released. In April, South Carolina’s unemployment rate was 11.6 percent, among the nation’s highest. That is likely to fall in May because of temporary gains in government hiring. But unless the real economy picks up sharply soon, official national and state unemployment figures for June may be higher than for May.

These figures will come out in July, as the fall election season begins to gather momentum.

That is not a good prospect for incumbents, especially Democrats who have to answer why the president’s lavish stimulus spending has not produced the promised jobs.

Look for Democrats to follow Obama’s lead and trumpet small changes in the direction of unemployment for good or ill — and for Republicans to cite the shortcomings of the data.

But unless we can whistle up an economic miracle, don’t look for a big upturn in employment this year.

The (Charleston) Post and Courier